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  • Writer's pictureJared Jones

Orlando Housing Bubble? This ONE 2021 Housing Chart Will BLOW Your Mind | Jones Group Real Estate




Everybody, Jared Jones. If you're watching real estate, you know, it's an inferno, it's on fire, but there's a trend right now that we're watching in the central Florida housing market that I'm going to share with you today. In fact, I'm going to go through three of my favorite indicators to watch, to get a pulse of what's going on in central Florida real estate. We're going to start it right now.

Hey there, Jared Jones, I'm going to walk you through a couple of graphs. I actually subscribed to some data that actually aggregates, the real estate market here in the central Florida MLS. And I'm able to actually kind of delve into specific counties and watch what is going on in terms of market trends. Now, I'm going to pull up a quick dashboard for you guys of some specific market indicators that I like to keep a close eye on so that you can get an idea of what's going on in the market. And then we're going to talk about what's going on in the larger sense. Can it continue? What will drive it down and what should you be paying attention to for your own investments or for your own plans to enter the market, your own plans to relocate? Let's take a quick look.

So on my screen here, couple of things you're gonna notice. I'm looking at, uh, the Orlando marketplace, but I'm looking particularly at Lake in Orange County. Only those two marketplaces. Those two counties are where I'm watching. And the graph that you're going to see right here is what's called a five-year overlay graph. So that means I've got five years. You've got 2020. You can see right here, 2020 screen, uh, 2019 orange, yet eighteens purple seventeens, like lime green. And these graphs are overlaying across a couple of different market indicators. I pay close attention to. So I'm just going to scan through those really fast so that you can see some of them. I'm going to switch graphs. I'm going to show you some kind of cool insights on what's going on with the marketplace, but check this out the average day on market. Why are the black lines this current year?

It's the lowest, average timeframe to sell a house on record starting at the beginning of the year. So out of the past five years, you can see right now that the marketplace is hotter than it has been at any point in five years. In fact, let me see if I can zoom out and give you a 12-year start. Let's see if I can see something a little bit different. Oh, man. So I can't really show you an overlay on this chart. So what you can see is back here in May 2011, you had a massive spike and how long it took to sell a house. So early in 2011 is when Orlando got really down. And then after that, uh, the market recovery inspired lower down market times. You could see it kind of just drop, drop, drop, drop drop, and it's never stopped.

Look at that chart. You look at a long, 12-year view. We are now at a point where it is rapidly, the hottest point of any time that we've seen in a, uh, in a five-year period, but much less a 12 year period. Now, uh, you can see that we bottomed out right here. You see this dip that's November of last year, this green line dropping to record crisis. Low inventory levels were always was right there, obviously spurred on by what interest rates, easy money people commuting out of, you know, Northern States, uh, uh, relocating, not, not commuting, but moving here from other areas. Look at this average sold to asking price ratio. This the 2020 graph, 2021 graph, there is record-setting right here. So you have the largest, amount, of sellers are getting closest to their asking price. It's the most at any point in the last five years, as you can see from the start of this year.

Okay. Not to be too surprising there. You can see here, we had a raging, uh, timeframe in April. So like as April came back, this really kind of represents sales that were going on in the spring before COVID lockdown happened. There was a lot of inventory going under contract, right as the market was being locked down. And then it dropped this in may we see in the green line drops out here in the bottom. This was actually what took place when it was 15 days to flatten the curve. Okay. So now it's obviously just continuously sprung back. Over time we had recorded, you know, sellers are getting record numbers on their asking prices going at the end of the year, the same thing now. And the question becomes, how long can it last? Do you know what I'm saying? There's always a correlation between rising interest rates and what people can get for their house.

That is one of the number one indicators that I will point out to you. You have to pay attention to usually historically, if anything, straight price changes 1%, then it affects the market. 10% repeat that a 1% change in interest rate. A lot of times has a market standard correlation of a 10% price decrease. However, however, in this market right now, you have no supply. So right interest rates can keep creeping up. Demand is incredibly high. It's not changing. And supply chain is still a constraint. So that means that the indicators creating the hot market are really not being mitigated by the climate industry yet. Now the interest rates only climbed by about half a percent. So, you know, w w w we'll have to see how that happens. I was, I'll show you some more content on that here in a minute, but check this out units sold.

This blows my mind, okay. This means that in, uh, November and December to get these line production, the units sold here in January and February are November and December production. You guys follow on that Homeland, our contract at the end of last year to produce this unit sold graph, which is not a surprise. Everything insight at the end of last year was being bought up to the point where, we're starting out a higher number, which to me, I did not expect to see this result because Y there is no inventory you expect with no inventory that you would see a lower volume of sales. Now I will be interested to see if we can hang on to, March and April writing over top of the past five years, because in the face of no inventory, where does it come from? Does that make sense?

You don't have it. You already have, you know, we have 1500 sales, you know, which is which again, I would imagine that even while you're seeing a small uptick, I mean, this is a small uptake over prior years. You can see really all the sales here in January were bunched up around 1300, 11 to 1300 range. So it's not like massively bumped up in terms of, we're not selling way more homes than we have in the past. But obviously, uh, the marketplace is buying anything. Anything even our ugly houses are selling. If your house is a pig, you can put lipstick on it. Now, sell it for top dollar folks. It's going to fly. Check this out. No offense. Do you guys own a pig? Anyways, the average price of a home sold. This is crazy. Now, this is one last graph. I'm going to show you. This one blew my mind because look at the uptick in, the pricing. This is crazy. So if you can see this, I'm gonna zoom in. Look at these three 66, eight 48. Look at last year three 19. Pat is sketchy. Folks. Look at that three 92 over a three 33 last year. That is crazy. That is crazy. Okay. Can we say house value is outpacing income and wages?

That's a good thing, right? If it does that. Okay. Anyways, I'll leave that with you guys. Look at this. Let me show you this on a graph. So this looks cool on a year-over-year graph, but we'll watch this on a 12-year graph. So here we are back to it. Check this out. So this a second ago, I showed you the trend on an overlapping chart. This is a trend on just a direct five-year straight line. Look at the end. Look at this. It's like flat, flat, flat, flat, flat liftoff.

This is like Elon Musk. This is like a, it was like space X market right now. Guys, check this out now. It's not just, here's the thing. Here's the thing everybody's like, what's going to happen with the market. Is this the bubble? Well, most people don't believe that it is. Okay. So if you go around to most realtors, if you read the sentiment, indexes that Fannie Mae just put out, most people are like, everything is great. Okay. But here's some interesting things I want you guys to see. Okay. This is a mean anything. I just want you to see this. Look at this chart of New Zealand bubble brewing, annual house price inflation. Uh, the interesting thing about New Zealand, which I'm gonna talk this in detail on another podcast that I want you guys to follow. You're going to see this within a week.

You're going to see detail about these topics. New Zealand, government tackles, property speculators, with new rules. Okay. New Zealand is actually getting involved in controlling who can buy real estate, basically like, oh, I'm an investor. Okay, well, you can't buy one. Oh, well you can buy one, but we're going to wait. You're not going to get any tax benefits that you usually have by law, because we want to make sure that you just aren't in the market. So New Zealand is actually going to put guards like fake the marketplace, because there's no supply and values are shooting off the charts. Check this out. This right here, Canada does this look at this graph. Canada is also sponsored by the Elon Musk space, X administration space, X administration. Look at this right off the charts. Canada's housing market. It's crazy. The guy who wrote this as an economist, Robert writes in this morning charts.

It's not fully apparent to all parties that the Canadian housing market is boiling. If not, this picture will convey the message. He's like, it's off the charts. Listen to this in Canada. That is the one-month change. One month of change is faster than three months of change. The three months of change were faster than the previous six months of change. Six months is faster than a year. And he says in all cases, but the 12 months and it won't be long for it happens. Price growth has accelerated through the rates seen in 2017. So now what is going on? Okay. You've got homeboy Jerome Powell, our buddy Jerome Powell, our chairman fed chairman last month said the current state of the housing market is downright unsustainable. And that the housing market is likely to calm down in the near term. But as for now, home flippers, particularly in the areas where pandemic areas, where, uh, you know, people from urban areas are leaving the urban areas, they're going to other places flippers came in and they're trying to buy, okay, flippers and builders.

They're not, they're not without pressure. And in February a stark update, uh, stark indicated again, we're going to talk about in separate podcasts in detail last month, builder permitting. That's the production of new supply plummeted. That's interesting. So last month interest rates, uptick, you got crude oil, you got lumber, all things that you need to build houses is skyrocketing and inflation. And so at the same time, you've got, the, uh, the outlook of, you know, what, what these central planners are doing, is to really kind of cool the market. Okay. And so, the thing that troubles me the most, and it's something that I want to kind of share with you too, you know, and I encourage you to watch the full discussion that I'm going to have with one of my partners on this, coming up me and host sway, uh, are going to go into detail on what is happening, how fragile is the market right now, how strong is it?

What are the dangers and what are some of the warning signs we need to look at? One of the things that really concerns me is the fact that, globally, the market's crazy globally, it's not just unique to one spot, which means there's some interesting, there's some interesting central finance governance that's going on, it's impacting this. Okay. It always has, but what's happening in monetary policy. According to the fed themselves have repeatedly said, that we are involved in inflating things. So, and then, as a result, prices are going through the roof. Supply chains are diminished, not just real estate supply, but toilet paper lumber, toilet paper, I think is back in stock lumber, crude oil list goes on car parts, you know, all this. So we're going to talk in detail in the next podcast on some major indicators that are coming up that are really going to drive the market forward.

And, uh, my, my ultimate concern is, I think there are people with great intentions that love to, uh, to engineer if you will, economics, because we don't run a free market economy anymore. Okay. We run a centrally managed. This is all evidence of that. And so you have to watch what the central planners do. The people that control things like the interest rate policy, governance of, uh, policy over how renting is done, how evictions are managed. Oh, that's tough as being is, is, you know, under the use of a pandemic is being, being controlled, managed by people. And so all that stuff has an outpouring effect on the economy. And so we're going to look at some really interesting things that are going to go on, uh, in the upcoming year future, check that podcast out. And we'll delve into that deeper.

Let me know if there are other areas of there's other counties that you really feel like I should include. I use the major metropolitan areas for central Florida because I believe that would probably represent a great cross-section of all the areas, but continuing the comments. Number one, do you think interest rates are going to continue to climb? I'm curious what your thoughts are on that. Number two, do you feel that there's going to be a flood of inventory in the next eight months? Do you feel there will be a flood of inventory between now and the end of the year? What is your take on that? And then what do you think is going to happen with mandates moratoriums, things of that nature. That's also controlling the market. We'll see, on the next video, talk to you real soon. Buying or selling a home in central Florida is expensive. The Jones group is the latest technology and passes the savings onto you. List your home for just 1%. Buying a home, get a $7,000 cash rebate before close, make one call. That's all better service, lower fees.


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