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  • Writer's pictureJared Jones

Is Orlando Housing Market Crashing Soon? | JARED JONES | JONES GROUP REAL ESTATE

What Are the Factors That Can Make The Orlando Market CRASH?

Is Orlando Housing Market Crashing Soon?


Boom or bust what's going on in Orlando? Let me tell you right now. I'm going to simply put it this way. Orlando is about to hit the hottest seller market in the history of Orlando. I'm not even kidding. Let me tell you, what's going on right now in this area. Number one, Biden is coming with Biden bucks. Biden bucks mean $15,000 in down payment money. For those that qualify, I don't even know how they're going to use it because right now we're running under a two month supply of homes, which means there's nothing for sale. So particularly in those competitive ranges where people qualify for $15,000 down payments, I don't know what they're going to spend it on, but let's move on. Number two. So let's talk about this real quick. When you're talking about a seller's market in a massive boom, that's a historical proportion.

We're not talking about housing prices. As much as we're talking about housing affordability. Hear me on this. It's not about price. It's about payment in most cases. Am I right? So consider this. What is housing affordability hinge on its hinges on interest rates? It hinges on how much supply there is it hinges on wages and employment. All those things matter in terms of how people can buy homes. So let's talk about the supply chain piece of this right now, there is a record number of homes in forbearance. So there are five to 6% of all homes are in forbearance. That means homeowners are protected from making payments. They can't afford it. They're staying put there's a one to 2% range of people that are just flatly, not making payments. Okay? There's a multiple, more of people that are sitting tight, then you have the refinance. Boom.

So the news just came out a day ago that there's a 20% increase of people getting refinances because they believe that right now, rates aren't getting any lower. In fact, yields start to increase on the bonds for the treasury. And so the rates have climbed a little bit recently, right? So the refinance boom means what? I'm not going to refinance it and sell my house next month. That's not how it works. That's an indicator of more people staying put. The next thing is that there's a lot of news money magazine came out and said that vaccines are going to have an effect on cooling the housing market. They're saying that the vaccine being rolled out is going to be beneficial to the housing market. I'm telling you this, the vaccines being rolled out, particularly in failing the Western States and the Northeastern States where people are locked in dying to get away from this. And I'm telling you, I'm talking to these people all the time. As soon as I get the vaccine, I'm going house hunting in Florida all day. Okay.

Now think about that. Vaccine rollout is going to absolutely heat this market up even further. So you couple that with the coming relocation, boom. Now I'm not talking about what I've just described, which is vaccines unlocking relocation. You have corporation relocation right now in those same areas. Disney just unveiled in California that they're going to start. Considering planning moves from Disneyland divisions to Orlando. Okay? That's just one instance. There's many other working on relocation. That's absolutely going to affect how many people are coming here, qualified, equipped, and ready to buy a house. And I'm telling you this, if you're a buyer, hear me on this. When there's no supply, most buyers, go to the lender. They get pre-qualified, you know what they do?

They say, I'm qualified for 300,000, and they do shop at 300,000? This is what's happening in the market right now you look at a house and you say, wow, his house just sold for 300,000 a model just like it sold for 300,000. And I'm looking at one. I like, guess what happens to that home? It doesn't sell for 300. The demand is so high that it sells for 325,000. And then you're standing there at a 300,000 lockout approval. And you're not bidding at 325,000. So right now in the marketplace, people that are in contentious areas, tight price ranges, you're really shopping 5-6% below your max because you're just going to be broken harder. When you see a price at lists that sells in two days in a range, you can't even compete in. Unfortunately, that's the market we're in and Zillow is calling a 22% increase in price nationwide.

Nationwide is an index. 22% increase in price. Understand this Florida last year, nearly doubled the nationwide index in value. If we nearly doubled the nationwide index this year on Zillow's prediction there economists, and what they're saying with 22%, what are we at a 40% price increase this year? I'm telling you the factors are coming. The markers are lining up where this is going to be an insane seller's market right in front of us. I don't know how that story ends, but I can tell you one thing. It's going to be an incredible ride this year for homeowners and actually people looking to get into the Orlando market in 2021.


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