Number one, what’s going on in winter garden real estate and number two with Florida’s governor reopening the state which restaurants have we found out are now already opened, so first housing last month, even with a little bit of buyer PTSD, a lot of obvious setbacks that go with getting a mortgage during a pandemic. There were still 92 homes sold in April, 2020 in winter garden as a point of reference one year ago, same month, April, 2019 there were 127 homes sold as well. It’s important to note that [inaudible] winter garden was actually coming out of the winter season with a lot of momentum, a lot of increasing, a lot of increasing unit turnover. Sales were actually doing really well before the dampening of the pandemic.
Now let’s project forward based on how many homes we saw successfully go under contract in the month of April. It’s very likely that we’re going to close between 60 and 80 homes in may, so as we progress from April’s closings over 90 homes, we should still project a drop off of sales as we get further into the viruses impact on the real estate market. Another way of looking at this to 60 80 homes, if that is what we close in may would represent around half of where we would be if we were in a normal marketplace coming into May, 2020 now 50% off the norm may sound like a big steep drop, but consider this, I’ve been tracking all of central Florida. The Orlando Metro area as a whole is off by 70% so winter garden is actually trending a good bit better than the rest of the marketplace right now.
Now hot or not, let’s look at the economy for winter gardens housing as it stands. One way of doing that is looking at how many months of supply the market has. That means if we don’t list any more homes at the pace we’re selling homes right now, how long would it take for us to sell through the inventory that’s currently sitting there on the market? Right now at the pace we’re selling, we would sell through all the inventory and five months. Now, four months or less is considered a very hot seller’s market, so at five months of inventory, that’s absolutely a very manageable market. By no means is it massively swung to the buyer’s favorite part of the contributing factors is this, since Disney actually closed stores, mid-March 85 winter garden homeowners that were on the market for sale have brought their home off the market.
I’ve not brought it back. That’s about one out of four of all active homes that have just basically left the market. So even though there is less sell through, there’s just less inventory because a lot of people are just inactive at the moment. The average price of a home for sale in winter garden on the market right now is 552,000 the average active has been on the market for 80 days. The bottom line. There’s a lot of places in the central Florida area ferry, way worse than winter garden, which just demonstrates winter garden has a lot of pockets of very high demand homes. Your home is positioned really well and you need to sell now. You absolutely can. Over the last two to three weeks, we’ve gradually seen showing activity buyer interest in getting back in the market creeping back up since it trended downward in the late weeks of March.
Now let’s talk about reopening a Florida, which restaurants are back in the winter garden area. The governors allow 25% occupancy in the restaurants at this point. That’s just not enough people in the tables to make this work properly for a lot of restaurants and as such, they chosen not to reopen as of yet.
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