Florida 1st Time Buyers are LOCKED OUT - What next? ? Jones Group | Central Florida Real Estate
Updated: Apr 8
FULL VIDEO: https://youtu.be/KTMZAiv_AE0
Let's shift to really topic three, which is, is anyone else concerned about any pop? Right. So, so bubble becomes just a price escalation to a point of no return. It was like, Oh, we can't sustain it anymore. And if you look at the chart, like I showed charts earlier in this podcast about, uh, New Zealand, Canada, if you pull up Lake in Orange County, which I have another update, which was produced before this video, which you can go online, YouTube, Facebook, and watch that orange and Lake counties pricing is like, just it's the same. It looks the same as Canada to me. So, when it becomes a situation, as we said earlier, where you actually have appreciation outpacing wages, especially local wages. Yeah. Like local wages is not even anywhere in the same trajectory of, housing prices. Right. It becomes a situation of what happens to the locals.
Right? We just listed a property in the low, low price range, like the entry-level of the market. We had 40 showing requests emails in the first evening that hit the market. And I think I'm up to like 90 emails now, day two crazy. There's not enough to go around, especially as the market gets more expensive. Florida is unique because while we're getting more expensive, we have an inbound demographic expansion from outside areas that still find our growing increasing price of value. Yeah. Right. Yeah. So, is that a potential for danger in the local market?
Is that a danger are priced forever? Oh, I mean, so here's the weird thing. Here's the weird thing. I mean, everybody has that person that they've talked to, that they, they talked to about how cheap it used to be like 80 years ago. See, that's, that's what kind of makes me doubt that we're getting too expensive is because inflation has, has, has its trajectory and home values. Just keep following that. So, I mean, I, I think as long as inflation keeps going up, as long as wages keep going up, I think prices are pretty comfortable going up to, I mean, it's just tough to say, you know, we, we, I mean, you used to be able to buy a nice house for $40,000. You know, that's just the bottom line here in this country and you can't do that anymore. But wages have gone up since then and the dollar has gone down since then. So, I don't know. When do you, when do you think there'll be two homes will be too expensive. It has to do with wages, right? It has to do with, the value of the dollar. You, you,
I think about how many people you talk to now that are pre-approved for a loan they give up. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So like they literally can go and exit the rent train, but then they shop the market and they don't want to give it a try. Yeah. Right. And so, it's like, what do you say to that person? Right. How many people and why? Like, why is it someone can actually get pre-qualified and then not want to be in this market? Why do they choose to right now, like we are seeing this happen. Yeah. You know, there there's agents I'm watching on Facebook panels where they're like having discussions where like I've released this buyer, you know, because of the lack of emotional resilience required to actually buy a house, not knocking the person. It's sad. It's really hard. It's not like going to the store and picking out your favorite shirt. Like you have to pick out a crappy looking
Yeah. A whole lot for it. Yeah. And then find another guy to buy the crappy shirt. Yeah. Yeah.
So it's, but at the same time, you know what I would encourage people is like, everybody thinks about trying to win the battle right now. Like I've got to get the right house right now this time, forget that, get on the ladder. Right. Right. If you get in the game and you actually start growing your equity from, from here to here, then you can actually take equity out. You can sell that home and move it up the ladder to something bigger and better. Right. But if you don't ever get on the ladder, you get left behind in a market like this. Yeah. Yeah. Unless you think it's going to create a 20%.
Yeah. Yeah. Equity. I mean, you could start building equity. Now you start working your way towards having a house paid off in 30 years, all you got to pay is utilities and taxes. I mean, that's just incredible. Yeah. I mean, and, and some people haven't started that journey. And there, you know, a little bit later in life, just start now, you know, start now work towards that 30 years. And then next year you won't be kicking yourself for not having bought this year.
It's really sad though. Like, I gotta be honest, like as an agent, when I start talking to someone who tells me they're a renter in central Florida, I almost automatically tune out. Like, you're never going to buy a house. Yeah. Like either you don't have the buying power or you won't want to use the buying power you have, or probably don't have the financial backing to do it. Right. Like the actual, you know, when you compete in a marketplace where everybody's got a lot of cash, if you're broke and you're like, I need help with closing costs, I need help with this. Like those folks, unfortunately, don't have a career.
Yeah. And unfortunately, they don't. What do you say to them? Well, you know, I try to coach them. It's just so tough because it's a mindset thing, right? I mean, people, just, people I've met a lot of people that are broke, but they make a ton of money. It's the weirdest thing. It's just, you, you make money, but you, you haven't learned how to save it. You haven't learned how to budget. I mean, some people make their first budget in their thirties. I mean, it's pretty crazy. It's just a cultural thing. You know, we think that our credit card is meant for you to rack up a dead end. And, I think, you know, these people can be coached, but it takes a lot longer than, a lot longer than one conversation. So it just takes more time. And unfortunately, this market is too hot for some people. But it just takes time. I think those people can make it as long as they save some money, make a budget, limit themselves, know their weaknesses. And, you'll, you'll get there, but you gotta be willing
To adjust your level of what your definition was, successes, and today's market. So you can't be there going, Hey, you know what? I'm going to win. And I wanted this, this idyllic house. You're not going to get it. Like, you're going to get a much different picture, but you, but you can't get the house you really want unless you actually start the process. And that's kind of like what we kind of say repeatedly and save money. You have saved money as fast as you can because if you don't have the cash, the market is dramatically going up faster than you're saving. So you don't have till next year, like next year, if we stay on a trajectory, we're on like you're, you're going to be completely locked out, which is really sad. So, so it is interesting that you know what we're seeing with our current affordability, like when I'm pulling Lake and orange and I'm seeing average sale is like high, almost $400,000, like on a certain month, you know, it's like, this is the average numbers that we're running.
Yeah. That is interesting to me because you're, you know, if, if we, if we don't find inventory, right, we don't have supply out here. Biller permits are dropping. Interest rates are climbing. It's still hot. Then a year from now, it's, it's well into the four hundred on the same type of pole at the same month. Absolutely. And then by then, like you are guaranteed. So, so essentially, like it's not a sales pitch to tell a whole lot of people that are currently renting in central Florida, you are fast being locked out of the marketplace. Right? Like really quick, like within a year, most renters in central Florida, I would tell you that isn't very much on the upper level of society in terms of what their income levels are. You're unfortunately you're done. Yeah. And then we're dealing with a bunch of relocators like, doesn't seem like that's what we're absolute.
The market is relocating. Yeah. Yeah. So that's the thing. Yeah. Is when we come to the end of our relocation, boom, we might actually see selling of prices. Yeah. Probably not until then. Yeah, absolutely. Because we're going to have the new Yorkers we're going to have the Chicago is the New Jersey and it's all these people coming in and kind of bidding things up and keeping that buoyancy of price. Yeah. Seeing it as a bargain until, you know, I sold my million-dollar dope in the Bronx and now I'm moving down. I got two homes here. Right. And Disney it's going to be interesting. Really will be. That's the thing. So it's like, are we working? We're working relocations for a good season. Most likely in front of us. Yeah. So that, so, so here's the thing. Are we possibly in a second?
Boom, because here's the deal. I'm noticing that people in Florida and people in New York as it comes to how nervy they are about COVID and vaccination and all this, there's a difference. Okay. People from the North seem to be much more scared of COVID than people in central Florida. Do you know what I'm saying? Like, this is the reality. Like I talked to a lot of people that say I'm not moving to Florida. And so I feel comfortable. Right? Yeah. It's comfortable arriving. You think about that. So if you have a huge percentage of people that aren't here yet that is coming soon. Yeah. You have another wave in central Florida, you have another wave of supply. Come of demand coming. Right. Not supply, you would hope there is supply. But the problem is, I think you've got a big group of buyers coming. Right. So if anything, you've got another massive.
Yeah. So by now, you know, by now we got here before most of the population takes the vaccine and uh, people feel comfortable, walk people walking in their homes and so they can sell it so they can get here. So by now, before you got to get on that first rung of the ladder-like you said, you can't get on the second one before you get on the first,
There really is a critical, there's a really critical, close a door closing on, on our current locals. That's a fact. Yeah. Isn't hype. I don't care if you buy with us, but with somebody else. The point I'm making is if you are in a rental situation in central Florida, your doors shutting really quick. Yeah. Really is absolute. Do you know? Yeah. And I'll lose sleep tonight over it. Get your butt out of your rental.
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