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  • Writer's pictureJared Jones



Twitter reports just out spell terrible news for home buyers and phenomenal news. If you already own a home.

Hey, there Jerad Jones, broker-owner of Jones group real estate. And if you're in the market to buy a home right now, you're ready to kill yourself. That's probably putting it mildly. It's definitely a frustrating environment. And I got to tell you for home sellers, you're gone five minutes done, it's easy. And we're actually seeing some trouble spots with the latest Fannie Mae home purchase sentiment index. Now, this is an index that they report on year after year, month after month, where they're surveying all kinds of Americans that are either old homeowners or they're looking to buy, and they're filling them out on their appetite for either selling their house or buying a home and how they think the interest rates are and their personal situation. And we've actually gotten some major changes on the most recent report. Listen to this really quick. The HPSI fell for the second straight month in December five of the six HPSI components decrease month over month and consumers reported substantially more pessimistic views of home buying and home selling conditions.

Particularly the sell-side component. Listen to this, the sell-side component fell for the first time, since April by 18 points reversing. Most of the increases that it had in the three past months implying that at least temporarily potential home sellers might wait to list their homes. So I've been watching this index for a while, reporting to you on it. In fact, and the index during COVID home buyers were like, yeah, let's go and COVID hit. And then they were like, Oh, they backed off for a minute. And they went, yeah, let's go again. And buyers were just absolutely on fire all year about buying a home. Okay. And so that played out in record sales. Well, sellers were excited. Pre COVID went and clammed up, took their homes off the market, delayed the selling decision, and then it plummeted. And it took far longer for the sellers to come back to the party, to the same degree that the buyers did.

So as that thing, Connolly sloped month after month going into the fall, sellers were making strides. They were more confidently coming back into the market, November, December, boom, the ski slope hits again and sellers sentiment. The S the wind has come out of the sales. And particular, we've actually seen a little bit of a dip with both buyers and sellers. And one of the things that this is pointing to is the fact that home sellers just, they're not wanting to sell right now. It's like, um, if they are an economic challenge, um, they don't feel like moving. Um, because obviously where do I go? I can barely afford what I have, uh, moving may not be beneficial. And some folks are literally, and it, between the number of people not paying their mortgage and amount of people that are in a permitted relationship with their lender, where they can stop making their payments call forbearance.

So between the people that are just willfully, not making payments and the people that have forbearance agreements, where the bank says, you don't have to make your payments. That's over one out of 10. People are not paying for their mortgage. So obviously they're going to stay. They don't need to sell, selling creates a new, uh, economic challenge for them. So one of the things that we've noticed is that people are not moving around. You know, people are particularly not moving outside of their County. So there's another video I shot recently where the post office, some of their statistics showed 90% of all the people that moved recently moved within the same County. Only 10% did a County move, which means nobody's relocating. And the people that I am noticing that are moving right now are moving out of luxury. Like they're usually somewhat financially responsible, or they've got some reserves or their, their stability is higher.

And so they're just deciding I need a bigger house, or I want something different. Um, and so for the most part, the downsize moves are being paused. Their relocation moves are being paused and listened to this Fox business. Just came out with a report in the last 24 hours that says the housing market stays tight as homeowners stay put. And what the article points out is the fact that in 2020 homeownership tenure, that is how long people stay in their homes. It's been on an increase for the past decade. So after the market crashed the number of times that people would turn over. I remember telling people for years, an average person sells their home in seven, eight years. That was a repetitive thing that we used to say early in my real estate career that went up to 12 years. So going into last year, it was in the 12 year mark, and now it's climbing towards 13.

So the number of people, um, they're just not moving. And then as a result, uh, home sales hit record numbers last year, while at the same time, tenure is climbing. People are staying put, they're not moving. The relocation market is done. And obviously, we had recent news that 20% increase in refinance applications. So if someone was sitting in a home that didn't necessarily have what they wanted, they just pulled some money out of the house and fix it and make it the way they want. We are in such a supply crunch that we're in a self-fulfilling cycle where I want to buy something else, but it's so hard to buy something else that I won't sell. And there's no inventory because the guy that's in his house that wants to go buy something else, can't get that something else. And so he won't sell. So you can't get a house so you won't sell a house. So there are no houses for sale. And that's the current existence of our market. We'll hope to see if the vaccine changes anything. And if the sentiment report changes in the near future, we'll keep an eye on it. Buying or selling a home in central Florida is expensive. The Jones group leverage the latest technology and pass the savings onto you. List your home for just 1%. Buying a home, get a $7,000 cash rebate before close, make one call. That's all better service, lower fees.


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