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  • Writer's pictureJared Jones

4 Reasons Why a FAST Housing Recovery is More Fantasy Than Reality

About the Author – Jared Jones has been a Florida resident for 26 years.  Since then, Jared has been a part of the top 50 in Realtor volume for the Orlando market several times out of more than 14,000 agents, including becoming the top Realtor in the country by volume in 2010 and 2011. He has been featured in Time Magazine Online, and The Wall Street Journal Real Trends Report of Top Agents. He was was listed in the Wall Street Journal and Real Trends Top Agent List, making the #4 spot in the nation by volume. He was featured in “40 under 40” Business Professionals in 2012. He frequently does outreach and training to help shape the minds and business of the local real estate professionals around him. When not running his real estate machine, Jared enjoys spending time with his wife Carrie and four boys, Talon, Connor, Bryce, and Simon doing church activities or catching the very infrequent round of golf! Jared credits his business to blessings given to him from God. He is active in his church and accredits all of his success to adherence to Biblical principles which he chronicles in his book Ancient Wisdom for Modern Day Success.

4 Reasons Why a FAST Housing Recovery is More Fantasy Than Reality

Are we headed for a V-shape recovery or are we headed for a crash? That’s what we’re talking about today. Hey everybody, Jared Jones. As we face the current epidemic, questions surrounding, is my house going to go down in value? Are we going to crash like we did in 2008? all these questions are kind of swirling around and we’re going to talk about kind of what that means for the home seller. Net V-shaped recovery is insinuating that as fast as the market went down, when the lockdown started in March, the market when it’s open is going to spike back up. How will that affect the real estate market and will we actually see that happen? A V-shape recovery is highly unlikely. Okay. That was a lot of early optimism. What will happen as I look at the real estate market right now by my own estimation, and this is for another video, we’re off by around 70% in transaction volume from where we would be if there was no Covid.

I’m going to talk about four major reasons why I believe we’re not going to see a V-shaped recovery. Unfortunately, the number one reason PTSD, there’s just a changing market. A lot of the exuberance that we felt in the marketplace that was going on in March, that dynamic has completely changed. The media is driven fear. There’s a lot of panic that was absolutely created in the reporting of the virus. So the natural response, that’s right. People are going to be afraid to approach the market and we are selling houses. Houses are bought in person. Yes, there is a virtual process for this. People are creating new ways to for you to see the house, and we have in my team, we do a lot of video, so if you’ve seen my properties, you know, you’ll be able to see those properties in a cinematic way online.

But this is a big purchase and most people need to see it. The PTSD factor is just that shock. People feeling confident to come out and look at homes again. The number two reason, rest in peace business as we know it. Unfortunately, when a lot of businesses closed back in March, they never will reopen their doors again. And even medium and large size businesses. They’re going into a defensive posture, which means people are going to be laid off. There’s going to be downsizing. It’s a new world in the business climate. The number three reason I think there’s headwinds in real estate market is there was already recession talk before the virus hit in 2019 I had sources from one of the top national restaurant chains tell me they were already planning for a big reduction of business recession in 2020 I had a Disney supervisor source that also told me back in 2019 Disney was doing a whole lot of defensive posturing, being ready for a much different climate in 2020 in terms of how much business activity they were going to see.

Also, stock market analyst and research professionals like Harry Dent, who’s been watching the markets for 40 years back in 2017 predicted one of the biggest market crashes in our lifetime for 2020 so while we don’t like to talk about it, there was a lot of bubble conversation happening as it relates to all the markets coming into this virus. The real estate market had been on an upward climb for now nearly 11 years. There was a lot of discussion in the marketplaces and real estate and stocks. How long can this last? When will the proverbial bubble pop? Reason number four, rolling outbreaks. We already are posturing ourselves to be prepared and there’s a lot of public input on the fact that things are not going to be as they have been. Sporting events are going to look different in central Florida. Here we are powered by tourist economy.

Now as you’re thinking about so much of the business that comes from Disney, Universal, and the like, that’s definitely going to have an impact on inbound travel, local short-term vacation rentals, things of that nature, which are going to see a change in demand for quite a while. So there’s talk of rolling outbreaks. There’s talk of potentially having more lockdowns in the future. That kind of thing is going to have a shadow of how fast the market recovers. What’s a seller to do? So now you’re thinking, I got to sell my house. I need to sell it now it’s on the market now, or I canceled and I really had plans to sell later. Listen, I’m not telling you what to do, but if you need to sell your house, why wait till the whole crowd brings their house back to the market? At the same time, as I mentioned earlier, a lot of people canceled their listing and pulled it off.

Lots of houses are still selling, but as we pointed out, there’s going to be a lot of headwinds in the future for the housing market. Putting your home in the market, in competition with multiples of other homes is not a great idea. Not only that, if we had an underlying recession, if we had bubble concerns before, there’s definitely going to be a different reality for the market because the foundation of it is definitely changing. Lending standards, available buyers, all those kinds of things are going to be changing in the new market, which means waiting longer, precaution thousands more and take more time. So if you have to sell, you might want to plan up on moving the timeline up, not waiting, thinking that it’s better for the house itself. Cause it just may not be the case. Sellers have to be prepared for the new market.

And what that means is they have to have a broker, they have to have positioning in the market that creates an environment where the buyer has a really great buying experience whenever the house is available. So for instance, on my properties, a buyer can go on Zillow, walk through the home as if I’m showing it to them. I have a global reach and marketing. So if a buyer is actually looking at the property from New Jersey, they already know the features of the community, the amenities, and I’m selling them the layout and the features of your home. And that’s very key in a time like this where buyers are going to be more hesitant and spend more time shopping online, less time seeing numbers of houses, you need to have an agent who can get video in place to get you on the buyer’s shortlist because the shortlist are shorter than ever before.

Buyers are, you can still look at 10, 20, or 30 homes. It’s now going to be like three or four then they’re going to make a decision. The better your homes position to give them a great view and a lot of what we’re doing is video that’s going to help you a ton. Good luck to you if you do try to sell and we’re here to help you if you need it. Our home low hassle was a must Jared with our main point of contact, but he had a team of experts around him to make sure no detail was missed. Jared Jones is the way to go. Get your home sold guaranteed.

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